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Monthly Archives: November 2018
There was a little bit of snow overninght that gave Tideswell a patchy cover in the morning. The snow-line proper, though, was at about 400m and a patchy snow cover persisted all day above that level.
In Tideswell it was a raw, cloudy day with quite a wintry feel to it.
It looks like temperatures will remain below the average for the time of year through to the weekend and probably into the first part of next week. There’ll be a lot of cloud but precipitation amounts are likely to be small. What happens later next week is a matter for speculation. The computer models are giving a very wide range of possible solutions so what I take from that is that the current situation is not forecastable with any useful level of reliabilty beyond about 5 days.
It turned out to be a very wintry day in the Peak District. In Tideswell we had long spells of rain and sleet with a fresh, gusty NE wind. The maximum temperature was only 3.8° so it was really quite bleak. There was snow higher up with a slight cover above about 500m.
The first 2 photos below are said to have been taken at about 510m on the Snake Pass at about 2:00 p.m. today. The 3rd photo shows Kinder Scout at dusk. There appears to be a slight snow cover there.
The webcam at the Cat & Fiddle (515m) didn’t show any lying snow this afternoon so it seems that lying snow was restricted to more northern parts of the Peak District.
There might be some further slight falls of snow overninght, perhaps lying down to 300-350m but tomorrow should be maginally better with less precipitation and temperatures rising a tad.
For the rest of the week and into the weekend it looks like it’ll stay a bit colder than average for late Novemmber. There’ll be a lot of cloud over the Peak District with some rain from time to time. With temperatures just a little higher than today it’s likely that any wintry precipitation will be limited to the very highest parts.
Beyond the weekend the detail is very uncertain but the probability is that it’ll stay on the cold side of average.
The image below shows the temperature and dew point traces for Tideswell for today, highlighting the day’s cold.
Today was one of the more unpleasant faces of winter in Tideswell. It was mostly cloudy with only a couple of brief intervals of sun. After a little early drizzle there was a dry slot before showers got going around 10:00 a.m. After that the showers were fairly frequent throughout the day, though never more than slight. To add to the unpleasant mix there was a cold, gusty ENE wind. The temperature struggled up to 6.5° briefly in early afternoon but it’s now (8:45 p.m.) down to 4.3°.
Tuesday looks like being a pretty bleak day with a lot of rain and perhaps sleet and an even stronger E-NE wind. The temperature is unlikely to get any higher than about 4° and there is a fair probability that we’ll see some snow on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.
It’s fine and sunny over NW Scotland but the rest of the country is cloudy and many places are having showers. Midday satellite image is below. In Tideswell, we’ve been having frequent slight showers since about 10:00 a.m., with the temperature flat-lining on about 6°. With a gusty easterly breeze it feels a bit raw out there.
Today was a day of two halves. During the morning there was extensive low stratus over the Peak District. Around midday, the cloud layer abruptly broke up and dispersed, leading to a mostly sunny afternoon and clear evening. The satellite image below shows that skies over much of the country were clear this afternoon but a cloud sheet approaching from the east was already half-way across the North sea.
The cloud approaching from the east is associated with much colder air that’ll flood across the Peak District and, indeed, the whole of the country during Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday, the temperature in Tideswell will struggle to get any higher than about 3°. During the middle part of the week it’s likely that fairly widespread showers will develop. Above 400-500m these are likely to be of sleet or snow, giving a covering above about 500m. In Tideswell we may well see some sleet or wet snow. There’ll be strong easterly winds, enhancing the cold feel. Tuesday to Thursday could well be decidedly unpleasant.
Towards the end of the week temperatures will probably rise a little but it seems likely that, in the Peak District, they’ll remain below the November average through the weekend and into the first part of next week with easterly winds predominating. An early start to winter.
Today saw the beginnings of the cooling down phase in the Peak District. The maximum temperature in Tideswell was 8.2° which is just below the average daily max of 8.4° in November. The day started off with fog and drizzle but the drizzle stopped and the cloud base lifted above ground level by soon after breakfast time. Nevertheless, the morning remained cloudy and there was a bit of an edge to the breeze. The cloud broke in the afternoon but never completely dispersed. As a result, we managed only some sunny period which gave a total of only 1.6 hours of sunshine.
In the past 15 days we have had a total of only 11.8 hours of sunshine. The total for the month to date is only 18.4 hours which is 38% of the average for the whole month. So, it seems that we are very likely to end up with a sunshine total for the month that’s well below average.
Tomorrow (Sunday) looks likely to be a sunnier day with temperatures similar to today. The much colder air is set to arrive in the Peak District during Monday and to stay for much, if not all, of the week. In Tideswell, daytime temperatures in the range 2° to 4° seem likely from Monday onwards. Although the week will probably start dry there’ll be an increasing risk of showery outbreaks from mid-week onwards. There are likely to be sleet or snow on the higher parts and we may well see some sleet or wet snow in Tideswell. However, at present amounts look likely to be relatively small.
The further outlook is very uncertain but it does appear likely that colder than average conditions will persist into next weekend and the start of the following week.
It’s still very mild over the Peak District but that’s not going to last. It’s now a nailed-on certainty that there’ll be a progressive cooling down over the weekend with the really cold air arriving on Monday. It’s still uncertain exactly how cold it will get or how long it will last but for much of next week it looks as though daytime temperatures in relatively high places such as Tideswell and Buxton will be in the range 2°-4°. There’ll probably be a lot of cloud so night-time temperatures will fall only a little below 0°. What we’ll all notice, at least during the first part of next week, is a biting E-SE wind, making it particularly unpleasant. At present it doesn’t look like there’ll be any significant amounts of precipitation during the week, so no troublesome snowfall is expected.
By the end of next week, into the weekend, it’s currently looking like the cold weather will persist though that’s not certain at this stage. If it does stay with us then there’ll probably be an increasing risk of significant snowfall.
It was a very pleasant sunny morning in the Peak District today but it clouded over in the afternoon. Nevertheless, it remained dry and it was one of the more pleasant days for a while. It was very mild, too, with a max of 11.0° in Tideswell.
It’ll stay mild for the rest of the working week, and mostly dry after a bit of rain tonight.
Over the weekend there’ll be a noticeable cooling trend and this looks like continuing into next week. At present it’s still uncertain about how cold it’ll get and how long it’ll last. There’s still considerable variation amongst the various computer models but it is increasingly likely that temperatures will fall below the November average during next week. The big question – Will there be any snow in the Peak District. The possibility of that is increasing but it’s still far from being a certainty. If we do get snow, at present it doesn’t look as if it’ll be very much but it’s much too early to be able to give any reliable prediction about that. It’s still a case of ‘watch this space’. Don’t take too much notice of the newspaper headlines yet.
Recent temperatures across the region can be found here.
After some sunshine this morning it turned very showery in the Peak District this afternoon and these showers have persisted into the evening. Some places have had short torrential downpours and there’s been hail in the heavier showers. We caught the edge of some of the showers in Tideswell but the really heavy stuff missed us.
The rest of the working week is looking better with a lot of dry weather in the Peak District, though some rain is expected on Tuesday night and into the first part of Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, we should see some sunshine over the next few days.
The working week will continue to be on the mild side but over the weekend and into the beginning of next week there’ll a progressive cooling down. How cold will it get? That is the $64,000 question. It’s just too far into the future to be at all sure as the computer models are not at all reliable with predictions beyond 4-5 days. It certainly looks as though it will cool down at least to the mid-November average but there is a possibility, and no more than that, that it could get a whole lot colder next week, introducing the threat of snowfall over the Peak District. That’s not a forecast at this stage, just a ‘heads up’ about one way in which the weather may evolve.