This coming week is still looking like having temperatures above the November average in the Peak District. It’s also looking like being drier and sunnier than recently so not a bad week for outdoor activities.
From next weekend onwards it is looking increasingly likely that it’ll start cooling down, which is hardly surprising given the time of year. There are still hints from the computer models of the possibility of it getting very much colder after next weekend but this remains very uncertain and has only a low probability at this stage. It’s just too far ahead for any reliable forecasting. Nevertheless, it remains one to watch. For now, just enjoy the very pleasant conditions that we are likely to experience between now and next weekend.
After some rain this morning the afternoon turned out splendid for a walk with broken cloud and sunny spells. Here are some photos I took on Longstone Moor where the temperature was around 8°-9°.
During this coming week temperatures will remain above average for November across the Peak District. There’ll probably be a lot of cloudy weather with some rain but it seems likely that we’ll also see something of the sun. At present, Sunday and Tuesday look to have the best prospects for sunshine.
Looking beyond this coming week there is a definite hint in the computer models that it could turn a lot colder. This is illustrated by the chart in the following link
A hint of winter?
This chart is one computer model’s prediction of the sea level pressure pattern and the temperature distribution at 850mb (about 5,000ft above sea level) for 0000 GMT on Monday 26th November. It shows very cold NE winds streaming across the British Isles. If it proved to be correct it is likely that many eastern and southern parts of the country would experience sleet and snow. However, the computer models cannot be relied on when looking so far ahead so this should not be taken as a firm forecast of what will happen. It is merely an indication that something significantly colder is a possibility in approximately 10 days time. There is some support for this prediction from other computer models but it is very far from being a certainty yet.
Computer models are predicting significant amounts of rainfall in parts of the Middle East during the next 5 days.
The past week has produced mild, cloudy weather in Tideswell with only 0.3 hours of sunshine in the past 7 days. Moist tropical maritime air has resulted in extensive low cloud when forced to rise over the high ground. This has produced a lot of fog in Tideswell. The temperature and dew point traces for the past week for Tideswell show clearly the very humid air.
It’s looking like the weather in Tideswell will continue mild and mostly dry over the next few days, dominated by air from the south. There are hints in the models that something colder may arrive in the 10-15 days time-frame but that’s nothing more than a ‘maybe’ at the moment.